Does Trump 2.0 Have Accidental Answers to America’s Biggest Problems? Is AI Stuck? Why Dubai Wants Innovators Over Instagrammers. Plus more! #233
And the cost for Britain to re-rule the waves.
Grüezi! I’m Adrian welcome!
Power’s less strong game than long game: China might rope-a-dope on tariffs; isolationism’s unintentional America fix; and Poland’s quietly booming service economy.
Nasty numbers: Britain needs £20B/year to re-rule the waves; kids hit women’s careers worse in cities like London (43%) than the countryside (34%); AI labs burn $10B annually whilst hitting diminishing returns.
Influencer paradise Dubai pivots to innovation, connecting 800+ global universities and backing breakthrough tech – from soil-powered sensors to ship-routing algos that could cut 3% of global emissions.
Plus a big ‘thank you’ to much admired David Warsh, for last week’s shout out. 🙏
1️⃣ Three Ways Trump 2.0 Might Work Wonders
Accidental answers to America’s biggest problems.
Isolationist, ‘America First,’ politically dominant – these three features of the incoming Trump administration might accidentally flip the switch on the US’s structural challenges.
Bear with me…
1. Isolationism – Could Fix America’s Strategic Overreach
Everyone’s worried about the incoming Trump administration abandoning or alienating allies. But consider this:
• US is currently focused on THREE fronts (China, Russia, Middle East);
• But can’t even make enough 155mm artillery shells;
• Has overstretched military supply chains;
• Hangs on to its nostalgic “arsenal of democracy” mindset.
Strategic ‘focus’ might force exactly what America needs – a realistic reassessment of its actual capabilities vs. its commitments.
2. ‘America First’ – Could Kickstart Modern State Building
US administrative capacity is weaker than many people realise.
• COVID revealed its unemployment benefit system is “broken by design”;
• There’s no functional welfare infrastructure;
• Relies on repeated emergency measures instead of systems;
• Can’t implement complex programmes.
3. Republican Majority – Could End Institutional Paralysis
“Wouldn’t one-party control be dangerous?”
Except:
• Current political gridlock prevents ANY coherent strategy;
• Half-measures (like the CHIPS Act) aren’t enough to really compete;
• China outspends the US 4:1 on semiconductor development;
• US industrial policy is stuck all flash and no substance.
America needs decisive action more than it needs perfect policy.
Isolationism plus domestic focus plus political might could force America to finally build modern state capacity.
Populist solutions might accidentally fix the problems more sophisticated policies haven’t.
#Geopolitics #Policy #Strategy #GlobalAffairs
2️⃣ How China Could Respond to Trade Tariffs
More Tai Chi than Kung Fu.
Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s new tariff-loving Trade Chief, wrote a book last year: No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's Workers.
So what will China’s response be?
Sometimes the strongest move is not moving at all.
China’s best positioning might be the strategic equivalent of judo – using the momentum of others rather than applying direct force.
1. Be Boring 🤝
Project predictability when others create volatility;
Show a steady commitment to existing trade frameworks;
Maintain monetary policy stability;
Selective market opening to ‘reward’ partners.
2. Play the Long Game 📈
Speed up domestic market development;
Deepen Global South economic integration;
Quietly build alternative systems;
Focus on infrastructure and technology independence.
3. Build Trust 🌉
Selectively reduce trade barriers;
Show ‘restraint’ on regional issues;
Offer supply chain alternatives;
Present as ‘mature stakeholder’ managing volatility.
This approach wins without appearing to compete.
In times of trade turmoil, the power that projects stability often gains more than the one flexing its muscles.
#GlobalTrade #Geopolitics #Strategy #China #InternationalRelations #EconomicPolicy
3️⃣ What Tariffs Get Wrong About Our Economic Future
And how two warring 70-somethings explain it.
Trump’s re-appointed trade chief Robert Lighthizer wants tariffs to protect and revive US manufacturing.
Fellow septuagenarian and FT economic guru Martin Wolf dismisses industrial policy as futile.
Poland is quietly showing us a different future.
Their services trade surplus is heading for €40B in 2024. Not through tariffs or laissez-faire, but by dominating high-end IT and business services exports while America debates old economic models.
The irony? Poland’s achieving everything Lighthizer claims to want:
• Massive trade surpluses;
• High-paying jobs;
• Strategic economic advantage;
• Even “reshoring” from Asia.
But Poles are doing it with keyboards, not assembly lines.
Wolf’s right that manufacturing jobs aren’t coming back. But he’s wrong that industrial policy can’t shape economic destiny.
Poland proves strategic focus on services can deliver better results than either protectionism or pure free market approaches.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: while Lighthizer fights for 1950s manufacturing and Wolf preaches economic determinism, Poland’s tech workers are serving 30+ countries and growing 15% annually.
The future isn’t necessarily about choosing between free trade and protectionism. It’s about strategically positioning for the service economy revolution.
#InternationalTrade #EconomicPolicy #FutureOfWork #GlobalTrade #ServiceEconomy
4️⃣ What Would it Cost For Britannia to Rule the Waves?
A bit of naval-gazing at the numbers and you start to see the problem…
Britain once ruled the world’s waves. Today it faces tough choices about its future as a sea power.
What would it cost to bring back a world-class navy?
💷 British pounds
UK defence spending would need to be bumped from 2.2% to ~3% of GDP;
Add £5-7bn to annual naval spending;
A total naval budget of ~£20bn per year.
🏭 UK Industrial Benefits
60-65% could be UK-directed (£3-4.5bn annually);
Major sovereign capabilities in shipbuilding & submarines;
Even F-35Bs are 15% UK-made (~£15m per aircraft);
100+ UK companies in defence supply chain.
🚢 Shopping for?
12 new nuclear attack submarines (~£25bn);
Extra Dreadnought class sub (£4-5bn);
Bigger escort fleet;
130+ F-35B aircraft for carriers;
New arsenal ship – aka “floating missile platform” – programme.
⚓ Strategic context
Growing Chinese naval expansion;
Resurgent Russian submarine threat;
Critical maritime infrastructure protection;
Red Sea shipping security challenges.
🔄 Economic impact
Major boost to UK shipbuilding;
High-skill job creation;
‘Sovereign’ industrial capability retention and regional development.
The bad news? Without even re-equipping its air force or army, getting its navy ship shape requires UK spending levels not seen since the 1980s.
#Defence #Defense #NavalStrategy #GlobalBritain #MaritimeSecurity
5️⃣ The Parenthood Penalty
How motherhood hits women’s careers
A new study looks at how motherhood affects women’s employment globally.
🏙️ Cities suck
The concrete jungle hits working mums harder;
Beijing has a 12% employment penalty for mothers (vs 4% China overall);
London has a 43% penalty (vs 34% UK overall).
📈 Development paradox
In developing economies, motherhood barely hits employment;
As countries industrialise, the penalties increase dramatically;
In developed nations, child penalties are the #1 driver of workplace gender gaps.
🤔 Historical plot twist
In the 1880s the US child penalty was only 5%;
It peaked mid-20th century at nearly 50%;
Now it’s around 20%;
Progress isn’t always straight forward.
🗺️ Scale: This study covers 95.5% of the global population across 134 countries, with some data stretching back to the 1700s.
How can we better support both working mothers AND women planning families?
#WorkingMums #WorkingMoms #GenderEquality #Leadership #WorkplaceEquity
6️⃣ Is AI Stuck?
Industry chiefs and industry facts don’t tell the same story.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei suggested this week that AGI – intelligence above and beyond human level – could be coming by 2026-2027. OpenAI’s Sam Altman is even more bullish – he says 2025.
But are they right?
📉 Size … stutters
Top AI labs report disappointing results from just making models bigger;
OpenAI’s Orion model showed smaller improvements than previous generations;
Scaling advocate Ilya Sutskever says “The 2010s were the age of scaling, now we‘re back in the age of wonder and discovery.”
💡 New technical frontiers emerge
Researchers can now “look inside” AI models to understand how they think, through a field called “mechanistic interpretability.”
Rather than just making models bigger, OpenAI’s o1 model takes more time to process problems – like a human thinking carefully.
OpenAI found that letting an AI spend just 20 seconds analysing a poker hand matched the performance gain of making the model 100,000x larger.
Neural networks naturally develop similar patterns for processing information, in language, vision, or code – suggesting fundamental principles of “intelligence.”
💰 Infrastructure barriers grow
Operating costs approaching $10B annually for major players;
Training requires tens of thousands of GPUs/TPUs;
Energy limitations are becoming critical constraints;
Each AI prompt has significant operational costs.
We’re entering a new phase in AI evolution, where achieving energy breakthroughs could matter most.
Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments below! 👇
#ArtificialIntelligence #AGI #TechTrends #Innovation #AIEthics #AIResearch
7️⃣ Dubai Is Putting Intellectuals over Influencers
The Instagram-able emirate is becoming a global innovation hub
The UAE has made no secret of its plans to become a global hub for innovation. Next week it will be showing off how – connecting top projects from 800+ universities working on the world’s biggest challenges.
Here’s just three of the innovations worth watching at this year’s Prototypes for Humanity in Dubai:
PATCH-IT from ETH Zurich is transforming early warning systems in hospitals. Their wearable tech analyses digital biomarkers to detect organ failure 5.5 hours before clinical signs appear. Critical in places where intensive monitoring isn’t always possible.
Stanford’s TERRACELL is already being tested in agricultural monitoring stations. It’s a microbial fuel cell that pulls energy directly from soil bacteria to power IoT sensors. 120% longer runtime than traditional solutions, with most components 3D-printable locally.
Green Navigation (IE University) turns oceanographic data into diesel savings. By looking at real-time weather and ocean conditions, their routing system helps cargo ships cut fuel use by 5-10%. With shipping at 3% of global emissions, this matters.
What makes these projects notable isn’t just the technology – it’s their focus on implementation. Each team has moved beyond proof-of-concept to tackle real-world deployment challenges.
The numbers also tell an interesting story about where innovation is heading:
Strong representation from both established tech hubs and emerging markets;
Growing focus on solutions that can scale in resource-limited environments;
2,700 submissions from 100+ countries.
Fascinating to see Dubai emerging as a connection point between academic research and practical implementation. If you’re working on similar challenges or interested in the full project database, the showcase runs November from 18-20.
#Innovation #Research #Sustainability #ClimateTech #HealthTech #DubaiFutureSolutions
Thanks for reading!
Adrian
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